Argentine Primera Division | Gameweek 20
Jun 10, 2023 at 12am UK
Estadio Libertadores de América
2 - 0
Martinez Rojas (79'), Toledo
More game data and we say below the videos
We said: Independiente 0-1 Sarmiento
Given that 12 of Sarmiento's last 13 matches have produced fewer than three goals, Friday's clash looks destined to be a low-scoring affair, especially when you consider that Damonte's men have not conceded a goal in five outings.
Accordingly, we expect the visitors to notch a clean-sheet victory at the Estadio Libertadores de America, extending their unbeaten streak to seven games while heaping more misery on Independiente.
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Independiente win with a probability of 45.39%. A draw had a probability of 31.2% and a win for Sarmiento had a probability of 23.46%.
The most likely scoreline for a Independiente win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.02%) and 2-1 (7.32%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (15.4%), while for a Sarmiento win it was 0-1 (11.24%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 10% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Independiente would win this match.